Analyzing RBI’s Strategic Reserves, Global De-dollarization, and the Technical “Spring Loading” Phase for Investors.
As we close out 2025, gold has officially solidified its position as the asset class of the year. In India, 24-karat gold has surged from approximately ₹75,000 in late 2024 to nearly ₹1,41,370 per 10 grams, delivering a staggering return that has outperformed major equity indices. This article breaks down the official data driving this rally and what the technic koial charts signal for the year ahead.1. The India Factor: RBI’s Strategic AccumulationAccording to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest Weekly Statistical Supplement, India’s foreign exchange reserves have seen a significant shift in composition.• Official Data: As of December 2025, the RBI holds approximately 882.15 metric tonnes of gold.• The Strategy: India has been repatriating gold from UK vaults back to domestic soil, signaling a move toward “sovereign self-reliance.” This domestic holding acts as a psychological floor for MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange) prices, ensuring that even during global corrections, the Indian Rupee (INR) price remains resilient.2. Global Demand: Central Banks and the WGC ReportThe World Gold Council (WGC) Gold Demand Trends report for Q4 2025 highlights a record-breaking year for central bank net buying.• Global Totals: Central banks globally added over 1,050 tonnes to their reserves in 2025.• De-dollarization: Official data from the IMF suggests a continuing trend where nations are diversifying away from the US Dollar, favoring gold as a “tier-1” neutral reserve asset.3. Technical Analysis: The “Spring Loading” PhaseFrom a technical standpoint, gold is currently exhibiting a pattern known as “Spring Loading” on the weekly charts.• Support & Resistance: According to LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) afternoon fix benchmarks, global spot gold is consolidating near $3,850/oz.• The Forecast: Technical analysts observe that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is cooling off after an overbought peak in October. This consolidation suggests a period of accumulation before a projected move toward the $4,500–$5,000/oz range in mid-2026.4. Investment Outlook: Physical vs. DigitalThe India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) reports that despite record-high prices, wedding season demand remains inelastic. However, there is a clear shift in how Indians are buying:• Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGB): With recent tranches reaching maturity, investors are looking for the next tax-efficient entry point.• Digital Gold & ETFs: These have seen a 35% year-on-year increase in volume, as per NSE/MCX data, providing liquidity that physical jewelry cannot match.Conclusion: The 2026 VerdictWith persistent geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve’s current interest rate trajectory, gold remains the ultimate hedge. Based on the World Gold Council’s macro-outlook, the primary risk to gold would be a sudden “hard landing” of the global economy, yet even then, its status as a safe haven is expected to protect portfolios.